The Covid-19 pandemic and the oil price shock of 2020 have exacted a heavy toll on global banks.
Recovery of banking jurisdictions to pre-COVID-19 levels will be slow, uncertain, and highly variable across sectors and geographies, S&P Global Ratings said.
S&P analysed 20 of the largest banking systems globally in its report.
“We do not expect the world’s largest banking sectors, including more than half of G20’s, to recover to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2023 or beyond,” it said.
The 20 banking jurisdictions are segmented into three groups: early-exiters, mid-exiters, and late-exiters.
Many prominent banking jurisdictions will only recover in 2023 or beyond.
They include the US, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia. These are the mid-exiters.
Among the banking jurisdictions likely to recover first – by end of 2022 – are China, Canada, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia.
These are the early-exiters. They have so far demonstrated the greatest resilience to the economic effects of COVID-19.
They will exit the effects of the pandemic the quickest.
They are in general coping more satisfactorily with the huge slump in demand triggered by the pandemic.
So far, the pandemic has no effect on the BICRA (Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment) of these jurisdictions.
Likewise, changes in ratings of financial institutions have been minimal.